Main Reading
Fat tails
The original rarity stack behaves like a tail-risk story: most people sit near common names, while rare surname/name/date combinations live far out in the distribution.
Visual dashboard
Distribution shape, tail weight, component outliers, and live no-key API enrichment.
Distribution shape: thin tail vs normal vs fat tail
Same center, different tail behavior. Fat tails keep more probability far from the average.
Higher far-edge lines mean more extreme-event risk.
Kurtosis score ladder
Illustrative excess kurtosis values: uniform is low, normal is baseline, fat-tail models are high.
Original data as tail signals
Original name/wealth components reinterpreted as tail intensity.
BlairMarieBurnessDrake/McCoyKylie wealthParis wealth
Extreme-event risk comparison
How much more tail attention each interpretation deserves.
Name-rarity odds as log-tail distance
Converted from “1 in N” to log10(N), so extreme profiles remain readable.
Kurtosis vocabulary
Keywords for framing the page.
high kurtosisfat tailslow kurtosisthin tailsoutlier riskrare eventsexcess kurtosistail weightnormal baselineuniform comparisonwealth tailidentity collision
Kurtosis deep dives
Each card keeps the prior glass-card behavior but explains the statistical meaning.
Quick comparison table
Best single-page scan for high-tail and low-tail interpretations.
| Scenario | Kurtosis meaning | Tail risk | Practical interpretation |
|---|
High Kurtosis (Fat Tails)
High kurtosis means the dataset has more extreme observations than a normal-looking distribution would lead you to expect. In this page, rare name stacks and wealth anchors are treated as tail-event examples.
Low Kurtosis (Thin Tails)
Low kurtosis means extreme outliers are less common. A uniform comparison can look flatter overall, with fewer dramatic spikes in the tails.
Simple formula framing
Kurtosis looks at the fourth standardized moment, so far-away values get amplified strongly.
kurtosis = E[((X - μ) / σ)^4]
excess kurtosis = kurtosis - 3
excess kurtosis = kurtosis - 3
No-key API expansion layer
Browser-only optional enrichment. The page works on GitHub Pages with static fallbacks even if public endpoints block the request.
Live/fallback API status
World Bank population endpoint and static model values.
Bars update after fetch when available.
No-key API data cards
Public GET calls and local fallbacks.
References and datasets
Static links embedded for source review and later expansion.
Methodology and caveats
This is a statistical visualization page, not a private-record lookup. The charts use illustrative distributions and the same public-style rarity/wealth anchors from the original page to explain how high kurtosis maps to rare outlier events. Use it as an infographic and teaching page rather than a formal statistical proof.
